Electoral processes are at the heart of democracy’s ability to resolve conflict peacefully, and much of the Kofi Annan Foundation’s work in support of elections aims to ensure they provide citizens with a real voice in how they are governed, and by whom. Without credible elections, citizens have no recourse to peaceful political change and the risk of conflict increases.
Over the years, the Kofi Annan Foundation has worked to deepen the integrity of elections; to ensure that opposition organisations are free to organise and campaign without fear. We have pushed to ensure that fraud, intimidation, and corruption are checked, and that legal mechanisms to address election-related disputes exist, providing Candidates, Parties, and voters with legal recourse to uphold their political rights.
Experience has taught us that the causes of electoral violence sometimes go beyond the conduct of elections themselves. A host of other factors – historical, economic, social, and even demographic – can influence the likelihood that a given election may experience violence.
Understanding these factors is central to identifying which elections require increased attention and support, and this can help inform our work and that of the many organisations similarly dedicated to protecting and promoting democracy and electoral integrity.
“Elections are at the heart of democracy. When conducted with integrity, they allow citizens to have a voice in how and by whom they are governed.”
Kofi Annan
Predicting Election-Related Violence
The Kofi Annan Foundation has partnered with UpSight QRA, an independent forecasting company founded by researchers at Uppsala University, to develop the Electoral Vulnerability Index (EVI) as a tool for predicting election-related violence.
The Index and its two models draw on a range of data sources to identify elections on the horizon that may be particularly vulnerable to violence and to provide international and domestic actors with a deeper understanding of where to prioritise their efforts. The first model seeks to identify overall vulnerability to violence, while the second explores the specific impact of social media and digital tools.
The Electoral Vulnerability Index is designed to help focus the attention of international and regional organisations, civil society, the media, and others on electoral processes that may be particularly vulnerable to violence.
The technical report, available for download at the bottom of this page, fully explains the data, methodology, and testing used to develop the indexes.
The lists below reflect the Index findings, showing the risk of violence and probability of violence in countries holding elections over the next 18 months.
The top 15 electionswith elevated risk of violence 2026-2027The top 10 democracies most at risk of electoral violence 2026-2027The top 10 autocracies most at risk of electoral violence2026-2027The top 10 Sub-Saharan African countries most at risk of electoral violence 2026-2027The top 10 EU countries most at risk of electoral violence2026-2027The top 6 Latin American countries most at risk of electoral violence 2026-2027
Index 2: Identifying Digital Vulnerabilities
Social media and digital tools are becoming ubiquitous in elections – and while they still provide unrivalled power to engage, educate and empower voters, they are also driving polarisation, facilitating the spread of disinformation, and undermining the electorate’s trust in fundamental democratic processes and electoral institutions.
In 2020, researchers working with the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age (KACEDDA) suggested that it was possible to identify certain factors that would make a country more susceptible to the weaponisation of social media– and therefore more at risk of electoral-related violence.
Drawing on this idea, we have developed a second Index that draws exclusively on data from the Digital Society Project, which includes levels of online censorship, polarisation, and politicisation of social media; misinformation campaigns; coordinated information operations; and foreign influence in, and monitoring of, domestic politics. These indicators provide a comprehensive, cross-national look at the intersection of the internet and politics, needed to assess the potential impact of digital technologies on elections.
This Index (EVI 2) allows us to identify the elections where increased attention is needed to mitigate the harmful impact of social media and digital tools; comparing it against the first table allows us to see where this impact may be significant enough to push elections into violence.
Experience has taught us that the causes of electoral violence sometimes go beyond the conduct of elections themselves.
In brief, both Indexes draw on inputs and indicators from the V-Dem data sets and the United Nations, World Bank, Digital Society Project, Violence Early Warning System (ViEWS) and Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). These data points were organised into a series of constituent models, which were combined to provide ensemble models to provide an overall indication of the potential for electoral violence. The models were then tested against historical data to refine the final forecasts.
However, these, like all similar indices, should not be looked at in isolation, but rather considered alongside other data, qualitative information and analysis. We see this as one tool amongst many that can help to inform our engagements and those of our partners.
Previous Editions
Access previous editions of the Electoral Vulnerability Index:
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On 2 October 2025, the Kofi Annan Foundation and the Graduate Institute’s Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy, in partnership with the Centre for Trade and Economic Integration (CTEI), convened the fifth in a series of thematic roundtables exploring the intersections of democracy and multilateralism. The session was held as part of the…
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The Kofi Annan Foundation is delighted to announce the launch of a new project entitled Securing the Digital Environment for the 2022 Election in Kenya, funded by the United Nations Democracy Fund. Building on the findings of the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age, the project will address the potential impact of the internet, social media and digital technologies, both positive and negative, on electoral integrity and confidence in the electoral process in Kenya for the 2022 elections. The project will convene and facilitate a dialogue with key stakeholders to work for conditions of trust.…
