As countries around the world prepare for elections in 2026 and 2027, understanding where electoral tensions may emerge is more important than ever.
The Kofi Annan Foundation and UpSight have released the latest Electoral Vulnerability Index (EVI), an evidence-based tool designed to identify elections at heightened risk of violence. By combining political, social, economic and governance indicators, the Index helps policymakers, election management bodies, civil society organisations and international partners identify vulnerabilities early and strengthen efforts to prevent violence before it occurs.
Understanding electoral vulnerability
Elections are among the most important mechanisms for the peaceful transfer of power. Yet when political competition becomes polarised, institutions are weakened, or public trust erodes, electoral processes can become flashpoints for instability and violence.
The EVI provides an early warning framework to help identify elections that may require additional attention and preventive action. Rather than predicting violence, the Index highlights where underlying conditions indicate elevated risks and where efforts to strengthen electoral integrity may be particularly important.
Developed by the Kofi Annan Foundation and UpSight, the Index draws on a wide range of political, social, economic, and governance indicators to assess electoral vulnerability. It combines historical patterns and contemporary data to provide an early warning system for elections that may require additional attention and support.
The EVI consists of two complementary indices:
- Index 1: An overall vulnerability index measuring the likelihood of election-related violence.
- Index 2: A digital vulnerability index examining how social media and digital technologies may contribute to electoral tensions.
Together, they help build a fuller picture of the challenges facing electoral processes today.
Elections with the highest risk of violence in 2026–2027
The latest Index identifies several elections facing elevated risks of violence.
The fifteen highest-risk elections in the 2026–2027 Index are:
- Equatorial Guinea (2027)
- Tajikistan (2027)
- Nicaragua (2027)
- Burundi (2027)
- Russia (2026)
- Republic of the Congo (2027)
- Somalia (2026)
- Papua New Guinea (2027)
- Zambia (2026)
- South Sudan (2026)
- El Salvador (2027)
- Libya (2026)
- Ethiopia (2026)
- Haiti (2026)
- Mexico (2027)
These rankings reflect a combination of factors that may increase electoral vulnerability, including political instability, governance challenges, restrictions on civic participation, conflict dynamics and other structural risks.
Digital risks remain a growing concern
Alongside traditional drivers of electoral violence, the Digital Societies Project model highlights the growing importance of digital vulnerabilities.
The ten elections identified as facing the highest levels of digital electoral risk are:
- Tajikistan
- Burundi
- Equatorial Guinea
- Nicaragua
- South Sudan
- Republic of the Congo
- Russia
- Libya
- Somalia
- Ethiopia
Digital technologies and social media have transformed electoral environments around the world. While they can strengthen participation and access to information, they can also amplify disinformation, deepen polarisation and accelerate the spread of harmful narratives. Understanding these digital dimensions is increasingly important for protecting democratic processes.
Why early warning matters
Electoral violence is rarely caused by a single event. It often reflects deeper challenges, including weak institutions, political exclusion, polarisation, restrictions on civic space, or the misuse of digital technologies.
The Electoral Vulnerability Index is therefore not intended to predict inevitable violence. Rather, it is a tool to support early action, enabling stakeholders to identify risks and strengthen safeguards before tensions escalate.
Explore the Index
Explore the full 2026–2027 Electoral Vulnerability Index, including country rankings and methodology.
