Electoral processes are at the heart of democracy’s ability to resolve conflict peacefully, and much of the Kofi Annan Foundation’s work in support of elections aims to ensure they provide citizens with a real voice in how they are governed, and by whom. Without credible elections, citizens have no recourse to peaceful political change and the risk of conflict increases.
“Elections are at the heart of democracy. When conducted with integrity, they allow citizens to have a voice in how and by whom they are governed.”
Kofi Annan
Predicting Election-Related Violence
The Kofi Annan Foundation has partnered with UpSight QRA, an independent forecasting company founded by researchers at Uppsala University, to develop two Electoral Vulnerability Indexes (EVI) as a tool for predicting election-related violence.
These draw from a range of data sources to identify elections on the horizon that may be particularly vulnerable to violence and to provide a deeper understanding to international and domestic actors as to where to prioritise their efforts. The first index seeks to identify overall vulnerability to violence, while the second index seeks to explore the specific impact of social media and digital tools.
The technical report, available for download at the bottom of this page, fully explains the data, methodology, and testing used to develop the indexes.
Over the years, the Kofi Annan Foundation has worked to deepen the integrity of elections; to ensure that opposition organizations are free to organize and campaign without fear. That there is a level playing field among candidates, and that voters feel safe and trust the secrecy and integrity of the ballot. We have pushed to ensure that fraud, intimidation, and corruption are checked, and that legal mechanisms to address electoral-related disputes exist to provide Candidates, Parties, and voters with a legal recourse to uphold their political rights.
Elections as a flashpoint for violence
2024 was the biggest election year in history, when half the world’s population had the opportunity to vote, many for the time. While it was in many ways a celebration of democratic freedoms, many of the elections came with some form of violence. Harassment, intimidation, attacks, detentions- 2024 revealed that election violence remains a very real and evolving threat. Our tool can help to focus the attention of international and regional organizations, civil society, the media, and others on electoral processes that may be particularly vulnerable to violence.
Experience has taught us that the causes of electoral violence sometimes go beyond the conduct of elections themselves. A host of other factors – historical, economic, social, and even demographic, can influence the likelihood that a given election may experience violence. Understanding these factors is central to identifying which elections necessitate increased attention and support – and this can help to inform our work and those of the many organisations similarly dedicated to protecting and promoting democracy and electoral integrity.
Experience has taught us that the causes of electoral violence sometimes go beyond the conduct of elections themselves.
Latest Indexes
Electoral Vulnerability Index 1: Overall Vulnerability to Violence
EVI Index 1 uses a weighted ensemble of models to identify the overall vulnerability to violence. Find out more about the ensemble model in the 2025 EVI Technical Report or the working paper introducing the forecasting system.The Maps below reflect the Index findings, showing the risk of violence and probability of violence in countries holding elections over the next 18 months.
Top 15 Elections in 2025-2026 with an Elevated Risk of Violence
Country Analyses 2025-2026
Unfortunately, some of the countries on this list have regimes where international partners have little space to contribute to positive change. Others are more open, where national civil society and international partners can take steps to reduce the potential for electoral violence.
The following is a selection of Country Analyses that provide additional information on the factors driving the risk of violence in a select number of countries and what can be done.
Assessing the Challenge of Digital Vulnerabilities
Social media and digital tools are becoming ubiquitous in elections – and while they still provide unrivalled power to engage, educate and empower voters, they are also driving polarization, facilitating the spread of disinformation, and undermining the trust of the electorate in fundamental democratic processes and electoral institutions.
In 2020, researchers working with the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age (KACEDDA), suggested that it was possible to identify certain factors that would make a country more susceptible to the weaponization of social media– and therefore more at risk of electoral-related violence.
Drawing on this idea, we have developed an second Index that draws exclusively from data from the Digital Society Project, which includes levels of online censorship, polarization and politicization of social media, misinformation campaigns, coordinated information operations, and foreign influence in and monitoring of domestic politics. These indicators provide a comprehensive and cross-national look at the intersection of the internet and politics needed for assessing the potential impact of digital technologies on elections.
This Index (EVI 2) allows us to identify the elections where increased attention is needed to mitigate the harmful impact of social media and digital tools; comparing it against the first table allows us to see where this impact may be significant enough to push elections into violence.
Electoral Vulnerability Index 2: The Impact of social media and digital tools on Elections
EVI Index 2 utilises the Digital Societies Project Model to assess how social media and digital tools may contribute to electoral violence. The methodology is available in the 2025 EVI Technical Report.
Top 15 Elections in 2025-2026 with an Elevated Risk of Violenceusing the Digital Societies Model
In brief, both Indexes draw on inputs and indicators from the V-Dem data sets and the United Nations, World Bank, Digital Society Project, Violence Early Warning System (ViEWS) and Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). These data points were organised into a series of constituent models, which were combined to provide ensemble models to provide an overall indication of the potential for electoral violence. The models were then tested against historical data to refine the final forecasts.
However, these, like all similar indices, should not be looked at in isolation, but rather considered alongside other data and qualitative information and analysis. We see this as one tool amongst many that can help to inform our engagements and those of our partners.
Previous Editions
Access previous editions of the Electoral Vulnerability Index here:
Strengthening Democratic Resilience in a Changing European and Transatlantic Security Landscape The Kofi Annan Foundation, the Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy | Geneva Graduate Institute, International IDEA and the European Endowment for Democracy (EED) will host a high-level Policy Dialogue in Brussels on 20 June. Learn more about our 20 June event…
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The Kofi Annan Foundation and the Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy convened the second in a series of thematic roundtables exploring the intersections of democracy and global governance as part of the project “Understanding the Links Between Multilateralism and Democracy to Tackle Global Challenges More Effectively”. The project seeks to further a common understanding of […]
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The following is a transcript of the speech given by Corinne Momal-Vanian at the 16TH EISA ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM in Nairobi, 11 December 2024. Navigating political transitions in Africa It is an honour to be asked to deliver this opening speech on behalf of the Kofi Annan Foundation. For most of my career, the term “transition” […]
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In episode 9, podcast host Ahmad Fawzi welcomes special guest Mohamed Ibn Chambas. Together, they explore trends, challenges, and opportunities for democracy in Africa. What are noteworthy examples of democratic governance on the continent? How can we restore trust in democracy, as the system best able to ensure that the voices of the people are […]
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In episode 5 of Kofi Time, host Ahmad Fawzi interviews diplomat Michael Møller on Kofi Annan’s special kind of leadership. A respected leader among his peers and the public, Kofi Annan served the people of the world with courage, vision and empathy. Embodying moral steadfastness and an acute political acumen, his leadership was one of […]
The following is a transcript of the speech given by Corinne Momal-Vanian at the 16TH EISA ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM in Nairobi, 11 December 2024. Navigating political transitions in Africa It is an honour to be asked to deliver this opening speech on behalf of the Kofi Annan Foundation. For most of my career,…
The following is a transcript of the speech given by Corinne Momal-Vanian at the 16TH EISA ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM in Nairobi, 11 December 2024. Navigating political transitions in Africa It is an honour to be asked to deliver this opening speech on behalf of the Kofi Annan Foundation. For most of my career, the term “transition” […]
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Strengthening Democratic Resilience in a Changing European and Transatlantic Security Landscape The Kofi Annan Foundation, the Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy | Geneva Graduate Institute, International IDEA and the European Endowment for Democracy (EED) will host a high-level Policy Dialogue in Brussels on 20 June. Learn more about our 20 June event in Brussels in […]
The Kofi Annan Foundation and the Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy convened the second in a series of thematic roundtables exploring the intersections of democracy and global governance as part of the project “Understanding the Links Between Multilateralism and Democracy to Tackle Global Challenges More Effectively”. The project seeks to further a…
The Kofi Annan Foundation and the Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy convened the second in a series of thematic roundtables exploring the intersections of democracy and global governance as part of the project “Understanding the Links Between Multilateralism and Democracy to Tackle Global Challenges More Effectively”. The project seeks to further a common understanding of […]
Report: GenAI at the Ballot Box Since mid-2023, experts have identified the use of one or more forms of generative AI (GenAI) in nearly every national election, including elections in Argentina, Bangladesh, India, and Slovakia. Consequently, it is no surprise that concerns abound around the globe regarding the use of GenAI during…
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Dakar, 8 September 2022 – The United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Open Society Initiative – West Africa (OSIWA), the Kofi Annan Foundation (KAF), and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) organized, on 6 and 7 September 2022, a colloquium on the…
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A global network that convenes election stakeholders around a shared vision: to inspire and inform action to advance electoral integrity in the face of critical threats to democracy. During a time when democratic elections around the world face an evolving and increasingly complex set of threats and challenges, sustained cooperation among global…
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The Kofi Annan Foundation is delighted to announce the launch of a new project entitled Securing the Digital Environment for the 2022 Election in Kenya, funded by the United Nations Democracy Fund. Building on the findings of the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age, the project will…
The Kofi Annan Foundation is delighted to announce the launch of a new project entitled Securing the Digital Environment for the 2022 Election in Kenya, funded by the United Nations Democracy Fund. Building on the findings of the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age, the project will address the potential […]
