The following is a transcript of the speech given by Corinne Momal-Vanian at the 16TH EISA ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM in Nairobi, 11 December 2024.
Navigating political transitions in Africa
It is an honour to be asked to deliver this opening speech on behalf of the Kofi Annan Foundation.
For most of my career, the term “transition” has meant a transition from authoritarian rule to democracy.
That is why it came as a bit of a shock to realize, when I read the conference’s excellent concept note, that is now means the exact opposite.
Something has gone wrong, ladies and gentlemen, and we cannot address the phenomenon if we do not admit it and understand it.
It is therefore particularly timely and topical for the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa, our host, to be dedicating its 16th annual symposium to this subject.
As you know, Mr. Annan was a relentless defender and promoter of democracy, not just in Africa, but around the world.
He was intimately convinced that democracy, whatever its flaws, was the political system most conducive to peace, inclusive development and the respect for human rights.
He himself had known military rule in Ghana and was proud of his country’s emergence as one of Africa’s most robust democracies.
He would undoubtedly be particularly concerned that his region, West Africa, now provides the most dramatic illustration of the democratic backsliding taking place on the continent.
So, ladies and gentlemen, what has happened? Why? And what can we do about it?
It is to find answers to these crucial questions that we have all gathered here. I too have come to listen and learn. It is difficult to provide such answers right at the ouset before listening to the many experts in the room, but I must try.
The Kofi Annan Foundation has in fact been working on this challenge since 2008.
It is in this very country that Kofi Annan and his Foundation made election crisis prevention and mediation a cornerstone of its work, after he was asked to help solve the election crisis in 2008.
It became increasingly clear to Mr. Annan that while multi-party elections had become the norm, they were not, in practice, always providing the institutionalized mechanisms for the peaceful transfer of power they were supposed to, in theory.
On the contrary, elections were increasingly becoming flashpoints for crisis and even violence. He set out to try to address this growing problem.
Although there were some major successes – and his work here in Kenya including the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation process which culminated in the constitution of 2010, was one of his proudest achievements – even he was not able to inflect the trend.
I think my role is to share some big picture reflections from the Foundation’s 16 years of experience that might trigger some interesting conversation and debate over the next two days.
To do so, I will look at the geopolitical context, the domestic context, and, finally, the road ahead.
Geopolitical context
Democratic backsliding in Africa is not happening in a vacuum: it is part of a global trend, just as democratization in the nineties was.
It is no coincidence that the third wave of democratization happened just as the Cold War was coming to an end. Communism had failed and there was little contestation of liberal norms.
The consensus seemed to be that the whole world was transitioning to democratic capitalism, at different speeds and in different ways, but the end goal seemed clear.
It may be hard to remember that time today, but Russia itself was transitioning towards liberal democracy, and China claimed to be a democracy, albeit with Chinese characteristics.
In Africa, leaders from the Cold War era fell from power one after another, often via elections, national conferences sprang up all over the continent that led to new constitutions, and change happened at great speed.
It was the greatest period of hope since independence, Mr. Annan often recalled.
But the world has changed. The international legitimacy of the world’s leading democracies was seriously eroded by factors like the illegal war in Iraq, which Kofi Annan opposed, the revelations of torture at Guantanamo Bay, the January 6 riots on Capitol Hill, and persistent accusations of double standards.
A number of reversals have also called into question the democratic bloc’s real strength and influence: failures in Afghanistan, in the Sahel, the 2008 financial crisis, etc. .
In parallel, more authoritarian regimes, like China’s or Rwanda’s, have done very well on many fronts, calling into question the post-Cold War orthodoxy that claimed that only democratic capitalism could thrive.
The failures of the West, the success of China but also some developments in large democracies like Brazil or India, have together emboldened authoritarian regimes, who are increasingly going on the offensive, both domestically and internationally, including in Africa.
There is a new Scramble for Africa under way, with a number of countries jockeying for influence and contracts. Leaders can, once again, play partners off against each other to lessen pressure over human rights or the rule of law.
The domestic context
In parallel to these global trends, democracy has not always fared well domestically either.
Many of the civilian leaders who came to power with the return of multi-party democracy have failed to resolve the most pressing problems of their people: security, poverty, unemployment, health, education, the pressures brought by climate change and desertification, and corruption.
When its high demographic growth is factored in, economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the last two decades has not been sufficient to lift the majority out of poverty and create diverse employment opportunities, as it did in East Asia.
Facing increasing unpopularity as a result, many civilian leaders have learned new ways of manipulating elections to ensure victory anyway.
They have waived or extended term limits to remain in power indefinitely, and they have gradually eroded the independence and integrity of state institutions, like election commissions, courts, media, and the police, to ensure loyalty.
Much has been written about the new concept of electoral autocracy, which has emerged on all continents, including in Europe, where leaders gain power legitimately through the polls but then undertake to weaken systematically the institutions that underlie democracy. This often means that subsequent elections are held in much harsher conditions, with silenced media, manipulated electoral processes and hamstrung courts.
Elections in these conditions give democracy a bad name.
As the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age – which he established shortly before he passed away and which released a comprehensive report in 2020 on the impact of emerging technologies on democracy – predicted, we also face a new unsettling challenge with social media platforms.
We all know, and I will not talk at greater length on an issue which would deserve in itself a whole speech, that these platforms have a unique power to amplify divisions, sow hate and discord and are being used to spread disinformation and misinformation. This is as true in Africa as it is elsewhere.
No government has yet found the appropriate balance between regulating these platforms so that they do not corrode the political discourse, and ensuring freedom of expression, as we must also recognize that social media can sometimes play a positive role in exposing corruption and the gap between politicians’ promises and their actual delivery of democracy, and in mobilizing for civic action. The European Union has nevertheless taken important steps towards this goal, which can be emulated on other continents.
Not all doom and gloom
Having depicted a gloomy state of democracy, I would like to turn to reasons for hope and optimism.
China’s increasing economic difficulties since the Covid crisis have shown the limits of its model of authoritarian capitalism. Faced with slowing growth and rising debts, a very high level of youth unemployment and public restiveness at home, China has turned inward and is showing less interest in influencing politics elsewhere.
By comparison, democracies continue to enjoy high human development scores as measured by UNDP and others, and remain, collectively, bigger investors in Africa.
It is also encouraging to see new models of participatory democracy emerging that ensure citizen’s participation all along the political cycle, not only during elections. In many ways, these citizens assembly and other processes borrow from African traditions around consultations and palavers.
But more importantly, democracy remains a universal aspiration. This is shown by the consistent results of the Afrobarometer polls, which indicate that large majorities of Africans want more and better, not less, democracy, and reject military rule.
You can see it in the wave of popular uprisings against Presidents Bashir in Sudan, Compaore in Burkina Faso, Jammeh in Gambia, Lungu in Zambia, and the list goes on. It shows that Africans are willing to risk their lives to demand or defend their freedoms.
A few weeks ago, the inaugural winner of the Kofi Annan NextGen Democracy Prize, 25-year-old pro-democracy campaigner Namatai Kwekweza, was abducted, arrested and mistreated in Zimbabwe for her work. She was released on bail after 35 days in jail, and I was surprised and so impressed to see her emerge uncowed from the experience. She went right back to her advocacy work, promoting respect for the rule of law and youth political empowerment.
Namatai is just one of many, many activists. Authoritarian regimes who think the global democratic wave is now over and was just a historical fluke are making a mistake. Kofi Annan once said: “Subordination to the caprices of other human beings, rather than to the law, is a source of despair to the human soul.”
But you can also see democracy’s resilience in recent elections on the continent, including in Senegal, Mauritius, Botswana and Ghana, that have provided for peaceful transitions as incumbent parties are defeated. So, I think the pressure going forward is going to come much less from the outside, and much more from within societies.
I am especially optimistic about the youth factor. The average age of this continent’s population is about 19 years old. This youth is increasingly educated, urban and connected.
From our work with youth leaders from around the continent, I see they are impatient with their leaders: they are demanding change, now.
What is to be done
So, we must continue supporting and defending democracy globally.
We must encourage and advocate for youth inclusion in elections, as voters and as candidates. Access to voting rights including their right to national identification documents or voter’s cards, but also eligibility to run for office, must be guaranteed. No election can be free, fair, and legitimate without inclusion of young people.
This is also why the Kofi Annan Foundation helps equip youth leaders with the knowledge and skills to channel their energy and courage responsibly into the future.
We also strongly believe in supporting civil society, which has a key role to play in these struggles.
We advocate for governments that provide for the most marginalized and that ensure that the basic needs of their populations are met, but also for a global governance system – including international financial institutions – that does not rig the game against Africa. For Kofi Annan also said, “A hungry man is not a free man.” And hunger, unfortunately, is on the rise on all continents.
Finally, the Kofi Annan Foundation tries to engage early on in election cycles to help the parties address the underlying issues that jeopardize the integrity and peacefulness of approaching elections.
We must support the early establishment of credible and independent Electoral Commissions, at least 3 years before elections, and allocate to them the funds they need to discharge their core functions such as: voter registration, updating voters registers, registration of candidates, monitoring of funds spent on political campaigns, ensuring compliance with the constitution and relevant legal frameworks etc.
Conclusion
Ladies and Gentlemen, this continent was the cradle of humanity.
But Africa is also the future of humanity, quite literally. On current trends, Africa will represent one fourth of the world’s population as soon as 2050, and perhaps as much as 40% by the end of the century.
That unprecedented demographic growth can be a source of incredible dynamism, creativity and prosperity, for Africa and the world, or it can drive instability, conflict and deeper poverty.
Much will depend on how Africa is governed over the coming decades. The stakes are high.
Kofi Annan believed in a peaceful, prosperous, and democratic Africa, and so do I.