Elections don’t fail overnight. The warning signs are there—if we know where to look.
From political violence to attacks on press freedom, the factors that weaken elections are measurable.
That’s why the Kofi Annan Foundation and UpSight created the Electoral Vulnerability Index—a data-driven tool updated annually to help governments, civil society, and citizens understand which elections might be affected by violence.
The latest update for the 2025-2026 period is now available. Discover which countries are vulnerable—and what can be done to prevent democratic backsliding.
An Overview of the Latest Index
Electoral Vulnerability Index 1: Overall Vulnerability to Violence
Index 1 uses a weighted ensemble of models to identify the overall vulnerability to violence. Find out more about the ensemble model in the 2025 EVI Technical Report or the working paper introducing the forecasting system. The Maps below reflect the Index findings, showing the risk of violence and probability of violence in countries holding elections over the next 18 months.
Risk Index 2025-2026
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Probability of Violence 2025-2026
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